Sardine Weather

Sardine Weather turns the NOAA forecast into a tradable signal — showing where Kalshi's daily temperature contracts look mispriced, updated every 2.5 minutes.

— What you get —

• SIGNALS. For 19 US airports (JFK, BOS, ORD, DFW, LAX, ATL, and more), every bucket on the Kalshi ladder with cost, fair value, and edge. Ranked by edge so the best-priced contracts are at the top.

• CITIES. Daily high and low forecasts per city, next to NOAA's official forecast and the live observed temperature.

• ACCURACY. Transparent per-model MAE, bucket hit rate, and historical accuracy by time-to-peak. See how the model has performed across the last 30 days of settlements — no cherry-picking.

• INTRADAY CHART. Tap any city to see how the prediction evolves through the day as new observations roll in.

— Free vs Pro —

FREE: signals with a 15-minute delay, aggregate model accuracy, and the full list of cities. Enough to evaluate the model before upgrading.

PRO ($34.99/mo or $249/yr): zero-latency signals, per-city historical accuracy, confidence tiers (high / moderate / low), clear edge values, and direct open-in-browser for every Kalshi market.

— About the model —

Sardine blends NOAA and Open-Meteo forecasts with per-city learned bias correction and live METAR observations. Predictions update every 2.5 minutes during the day and are scored against the final NOAA CLI settlement each morning. The model continues learning from each settlement automatically.

— Not financial advice —

Sardine Weather publishes probability estimates for weather outcomes. It does not place trades, hold positions, or provide financial guidance. Fair value and edge are mathematical estimates — you decide whether and how to act on them.

Data: NOAA / NWS (public domain) and Open-Meteo.

Terms of Use (EULA): https://www.apple.com/legal/internet-services/itunes/dev/stdeula/
Privacy Policy: https://sardine-weather.com/privacy